How's the Small Ball Going Nellie?

"Their small line-up was better than our small line-up"

-Don Nelson

 This is becoming the ritual quote after every Golden State Warriors game. Yes, we've lost/let go of B Diddy. Yes we've lost Pietrus (which is fine by me), Barnes, and Harrington (again, fine by me). Yes, we don't have a true point guard. So given all these factores, why does Nellie keep returning to a small line-up? 

Time and again, we've seen a small line-up, often with Corey Maggette at PF start the game and get crushed. Then Nellie rests the vets, lets our young bigs into the game, and lo and behold! The game is close! Maybe, we're even winning. And then it's back to small ball, and we lose. Nelson has "led" the team to a 7-19 record. The Warriors are now in the Western Conference basement, just ahead of Minnesota and OKC, and tied with Sacramento. The long-forsaken Memphis Grizzlies have a better record for cryin' out loud.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't see everything as doom-and-gloom. I can't recall a time since the Webber era when the Warriors have had such promising talent. Anthony Randolph. Monta Ellis. Andris Biedrins. Brandan Wright. Marco Bellinelli. These guys have shown flashes, even prolonged bursts (Monta and Andris) of brilliant basketball. And there are some promising bench guys, with DeMarcus Nelson (a guard who plays defense? wow!), Anthony Morrow, even Rob Kurz.

But, the team is not gelling, the atmosphere seems to be getting toxic, and the team is the worst its been in years. At least during the Dunleavy-Murphy era, we won at home. This year's team has been woefully unable to win anywhere, except against the worst teams of the league.

Geoff Lepper has some excellent analysis on his blog ( http://48minutes.net/page/2/ ) of the numbers breakdown of small ball vs. big ball. Here it is below:

Lineup                      GS          OPP        +/-
Large                   99.7     92.5      +7.2
Turiaf-Biedrins      107.1    97.4      +9.7
Medium               103.6    109.6    -6.0
Small                  107.3    116.6    -9.3

Now granted, the sample size (as he points out) is rather small for larger line-ups as compared to the smaller ones, but what jumps out right away? The Warriors outscore their opponents and hold their scoring down the larger they play. The smaller they go, the more they lose by. Seems simple, doesn't it? Apparently not if you're a genius coach.